Aon-Columbia Research Highlights Underestimated Climate Impact on Hurricanes

Aon announced findings from the first phase of its ongoing research collaboration with Columbia University, which integrates Columbia's climate science into Aon's tropical cyclone model. These findings will be published in the Journal of Catastrophe Risk and Resilience in August.

Patrick Kelly, Aon's head of Climate Analytics for North America, said, "Climate risk across geographies and perils is interconnected, and represents a significant area of uncertainty for the re/insurance industry.… This research will help global organizations navigate volatility, build resilience and ultimately shape better business decisions."

Key findings from the first phase include the following.

• US hurricane losses could increase by at least 10 percent over the next 20 years.
• The uncertainty of future loss projections emphasizes the need for adaptable risk management strategies.
• Aerosol concentrations significantly influence Atlantic hurricane frequency, suggesting that future reductions may lead to more storms.
• Current climate models may underestimate severe weather projections due to incorrect representations of Pacific Ocean warming.

The second phase will focus on addressing climate model biases, particularly the overestimation of warming in the eastern Pacific Ocean. This bias may lead to underestimations of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic. The new research will refine climate model projections to better predict future risks and losses.