Colorado State Researchers Predict Above-Average Hurricane Season

In their first extended range forecast of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) predicted above-normal storm activity.

"We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean," a statement accompanying the forecast from the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State said.

The first 2022 CSU Atlantic hurricane season forecast calls for 19 named storms, including 9 hurricanes of which 4 will be major hurricanes. In comparison, the averages for the period from 1991 to 2020 are 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes.

The Colorado State researchers' report noted that the April forecast is the earliest Atlantic hurricane season forecast they provide and "has modest long-term skill when evaluated in hindcast mode." The skill of the team's forecasts increases as the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches, the report said.

"As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them," the Colorado State researchers cautioned. "They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."