Colorado State Team Predicts Above-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season

Researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) are forecasting above-normal activity for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

"We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean," the CSU team said in a statement.

In their first forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, the Colorado State researchers noted that while sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic Ocean are generally warmer than normal, those temperatures are not as warm as they were at this time last year.

The CSU team's initial 2025 Atlantic hurricane forecast predicts 17 named storms with 9 of those storms becoming hurricanes, 4 of which are expected to be major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. In comparison, the averages for the period from 1991 to 2020 are 14.4 named storms with 7.2 hurricanes, 3.2 of which are major hurricanes.

The Colorado State team plans to update its 2025 Atlantic hurricane forecast on June 11, July 9, and August 6. The report noted that the forecasts become more accurate with each update. "The skill of CSU's forecast updates increases as the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches," the report said.

"Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season's hurricane activity in early April," the CSU report said. "There is, however, much curiosity as to how global ocean and atmosphere features are presently arranged with respect to the probability of an active or inactive hurricane season for the coming year."