2023 Hurricane Forecast Update Increases Predicted Storm Numbers

Researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) have slightly increased their forecast for 2023 Atlantic hurricane season activity and now predict a "near-average" season.

The updated forecast—Colorado State's second forecast for the 2023 season—calls for 15 named storms, including 7 hurricanes, 3 of which will be major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.

In its initial forecast for this year, the Colorado State team predicted a slightly below-average level of activity this year, with 13 named storms, including 6 hurricanes with 2 major hurricanes.

The average for the period from 1992 to 2020 is 14.4 named storms, including 7.2 hurricanes with 3.2 major hurricanes.

"El Niño development appears imminent, as water temperatures across the eastern and central tropical Pacific have anomalously warmed over the past couple of months," a CSU Tropical Weather & Climate Research statement accompanying the updated forecast said. "Tropical and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are now much warmer than normal."

The Colorado State researchers indicated that there are few good analogs in previous hurricane seasons for this year's combination of a moderate/strong El Niño and a much-warmer-than-normal Atlantic likely to co-exist. Consequently, there is a considerable amount of uncertainty in the current outlook, they said.

The updated forecast continued to estimate that the probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the United States this season is near the long-period average.

The Colorado State team will issue additional updates to its 2023 hurricane forecast on July 6 and August 3.