North Carolina State Researchers Predict Normal Hurricane Season

Researchers at North Carolina State University are predicting a normal Atlantic hurricane season this year, with 11 to 15 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin.

The Atlantic Basin includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea.

The number of named storms predicted is at the higher end of long-term averages but at the lower end of more recent 30-year averages, Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth, and atmospheric sciences at North Carolina State, said in a statement. The long-term average (1951–2022) of named storms is 11, and the more recent average (1991–2020) is 14 named storms.

Of the predicted 11 to 15 named storms this year (the historical average is 6), 6 to 8 might become hurricanes, according to the North Carolina State research, with 2 to 3 possibly becoming major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.

The Gulf of Mexico will also see a hurricane season in line with historical averages, according to the forecast. Of the 11 to 15 named storms forecast across the entire Atlantic basin, 3 to 5 are predicted to form in the Gulf, with 1 to 3 becoming hurricanes and 1 possibly becoming a major hurricane. Historical averages for the Gulf of Mexico are 3 named storms and 1 hurricane.

The North Carolina State forecast is based on more than 100 years of historical data on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as other variables, including weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures.