North Carolina State Researchers Predict Active Hurricane Season

Researchers at North Carolina State University have joined other forecasters in predicting an active Atlantic hurricane season this year.

According to the North Carolina State forecast, this year's hurricane season—which runs from June 1 to November 30—will see 17 to 21 named storms forming over the Atlantic basin.

The predicted number of named storms is above the long-term average of 11 over the period from 1951 through 2021, according to Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth, and atmospheric sciences at North Carolina State.

Of the predicted 17 to 21 named storms, 7 to 9 may grow strong enough to become hurricanes—greater than the historical average of 6—with the possibility that 3 to 6 will become major hurricanes, according to the North Carolina State forecast.

The Gulf of Mexico will experience an active hurricane season, though more in line with historical averages, the forecast suggested. Three to six named storms are expected to form in the Gulf, with one or two becoming major hurricanes. Historical averages for the Gulf are three named storms and one hurricane.

The North Carolina State forecast is based on the evaluation of more than 100 years of historical data on Atlantic Ocean hurricanes as well as other variables, including weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures.