Updated Colorado State Hurricane Forecast Raises Storm Prediction

Researchers at Colorado State University have updated their 2022 Atlantic hurricane season forecast and are now forecasting a "well-above-average" season.

The latest forecast calls for 20 named storms, including 10 hurricanes, 5 of which are expected to be major hurricanes.

This year's initial Colorado State hurricane forecast called for an above-normal season with 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

"We have increased our forecast and now call for a well-above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season in 2022," the Colorado State team said in its latest report. "We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean."

The report put the probability of at least one major hurricane (Category 3 or greater) making landfall somewhere on the US coastline at 76 percent, greater than the 52 percent average for the last century. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the US East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, was placed at 51 percent, above the 31 percent average for the last century. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the US Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas, was placed at 50 percent, above the average for the last century of 30 percent.

"Information obtained through May 2022 indicates that the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season will have activity well above the 1991–2020 average," the latest Colorado State report said. Averages over that period are 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes.