Researchers Continue To Forecast Well Above Average Hurricane Season

In the latest update to their 2022 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, researchers from Colorado State University continue to predict a well above average hurricane season.

The forecast is largely unchanged from the June Colorado State update, calling for 20 named storms, including 10 hurricanes, 5 of which are expected to be major hurricanes.

"We anticipate La Niña to persist throughout the remainder of the hurricane season, given the strong central tropical Pacific trade wind surge that is underway and predicted to persist for the next several weeks. Sea surface temperatures across most of the tropical Atlantic are now above normal," the latest Colorado State forecast said. "We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean."

This year's initial Colorado State hurricane forecast in April called for an above-normal season with 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

The latest update put the probability of at least 1 major hurricane (Category 3 or greater) making landfall somewhere on the US coastline at 75 percent, greater than the 52 percent average for the last century. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the US East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, was placed at 50 percent, above the 31 percent average for the last century. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the US Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas, was placed at 49 percent, above the average for the last century of 30 percent.

Atlantic hurricane season activity annual averages over the period of 1991–2020 are 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes.